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    基于信息量模型的滑坡灾害易发性评价——以重庆市为例

    Landslide susceptibility assessment based on weighted information value model: A case study of Chongqing city

    • 摘要: 以滑坡灾害发育严重的重庆市为研究区, 基于相关分析结果选取坡度、坡向、地层岩性、距构造距离、距水系距离、降雨量、土壤类型、土地利用类型、距道路距离、归一化植被指数(NDVI)10个指标构成易发区评价指标体系。以2000—2020年发生的8 756个历史滑坡灾害点为样本数据, 在遥感和地理信息系统的支持下, 采用信息量模型开展研究区滑坡易发性评价。结果表明: 影响研究区滑坡发育的主要指标为水系、NDVI、坡度, 其中信息量值排名前5位的分别为: 距水系距离200 m, 500 m)(0.809)、NDVI中的8%, 38%)(0.563)、坡度13°, 20°)(0.500)、距水系距离0, 200 m)(0.429)、距水系距离500 m, 1 000 m)(0.428);极高易发区和高易发区分别占研究区面积的17.26%和31.82%, 极高易发区的空间分布与水系分布高度吻合, 信息量模型的评价精度为78.20%。研究结果可为重庆市滑坡灾害预测预报和做好防灾减灾工作提供技术参考。

       

      Abstract:
      Background Affected by four types of factors: topography, geology, hydrological environment and human activities, landslide disasters occur frequently in Chongqing, with the distribution characteristics of "many points and wide areas". The frequency of landslide disasters has caused huge casualties, property damage and ecological damage. Regional landslide susceptibility assessment is one of the effective measures for disaster prevention and control, which is of great significance to the government to carry out disaster risk management. The susceptibility evaluation was conducted at Chongqing city where landslide disaster seriously developed.
      Methods Elevation, slope, aspect, lithology, distance from construction, distance from water system, rainfall, soil type, land use, distance from road and the normalized difference vegetation index(NDVI) were selected as the influencing factors affecting the development of landslides. The band set statistical tool of ArcGIS was used to test the correlation, and the factors with strong correlation were eliminated to form a landslide susceptibility evaluation index system. Based on the sample data of 8 756 historical landslide disaster sites from 2000 to 2020, with the support of remote sensing(RS) and geographic information system(GIS), the weighted information value model was used to evaluate the landslide susceptibility in the study area.
      Results 1) Based on the results of relevant analysis, the elevation factor was eliminated. 2) The main factors affecting the landslide development in the study area were water system, NDVI and slope. Among which the top 5 values of weighted information were: the distance was between 200 m and 500 m from water system(0.809), the NDVI was between 8% and 38%(0.563), the slope was between 13°and 20°(0.500), the distance was between 0 m and 200 m from water system(0.429), the distance was between 500 m and 1 000 m from water system(0.428). 3) The high and relatively high susceptibility areas accounted for 17.26% and 31.82% of the study area respectively, and the spatial distribution of relatively high susceptibility areas was highly consistent with the distribution of water system.
      Conclusions The research area is mainly dominated by high susceptibility area and medium susceptibility area, and the assessment accuracy of the weighted information value model is about 78.20%, which can better reflect the landslide disaster situation in Chongqing. The results provide technical reference for the prediction of landslide disaster in Chongqing and the government's disaster prevention and mitigation work.

       

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