Background The soil erosion in Badong county is serious, which seriously threatens the water quality safety of the Three Gorges Reservoir area. The analysis of the spatial and temporal variations as well as the factors driving soil erosion in Badong county is helpful for the government to formulate corresponding policies.

Methods The spatial and temporal dynamic changes of soil erosion in Badong county in 2000, 2010, and 2020 were investigated using the RUSLE model, and the soil erosion in 2030 was predicted using the CA-Markov model. The explanatory power of six driving factors: monthly average rainfall, elevation, slope, vegetation covering, land use type, and soil type, on the spatial distribution of soil erosion was quantitatively measured using the geographical detector.

Results 1) The study area was dominated by low-intensity erosion, and the three stages of sightly erosion accounted for 76.93%, 83.89% and 95.46% of the study area, respectively. From 2000 to 2020, the soil erosion intensity changed from high to sight. The area of sight erosion increased by 605.57 km², and the other erosion areas decreased by 604.74 km². 2) The intensity of soil erosion was predicted to keep declining through 2030. The area of sight erosion will increase by 62.78 km² in comparison to 2020, whereas the areas of other erosion grades are going to decline. 3) Vegetation coverage, monthly average rainfall and elevation were the primary factors affecting soil erosion in Badong, and their interaction was mainly nonlinear enhancement.

Conclusions Overall, there is a decreasing trend in the degree of soil erosion in Badong county, which is strongly correlated with changes to land use patterns and the implementation of water and soil conservation measures. Future efforts to minimize soil erosion and water loss should be given to the regions around the Yangtze, Qingjiang, and Shennong rivers.