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    乡镇(街道)地质灾害风险性评价方法研究——以安康市石泉县城关镇为例

    Research on the risk assessment method of geological hazards in town (street) :A case study of Chengguan Town, Shiquan County of Ankang

    • 摘要: 地质灾害风险性是承灾体在一定区域和时期内因地质灾害而遭受损失的可能性和严重程度。目前区域地质灾害风险性研究广泛,应用的评价方法及模型种类较多,为了探索一种适用于乡镇(街道)区域尺度有效的地质灾害风险性评价方法,本研究选取陕西省秦巴山区地质灾害及隐患发育较多的石泉县城关镇为例,以斜坡为评价单元,提出了一种融合多种条件模型的基于综合指数法评价易发性-极值降雨假设/有效降雨量/斜坡单元稳定性三种条件假设评价危险性-承灾体定量化指标加权求和评价易损性-综合危险性和易损性评价风险性的地质灾害风险性评价的全流程方法。研究结果表明:基于该方法评价得到的地质灾害易发性可以有效揭示区域孕灾地质背景特征,地质灾害危险性可以反映出区域在不同降雨工况下遭受地质灾害损害的危险程度差异以及在某一种降雨工况下区域危险性的空间差异,地质灾害承灾体易损性可以定量地反映出承灾体受到地质灾害影响后的损失量值,基于以上评价结果最终得到的地质灾害风险性可以准确地划分出地质灾害风险等级较高的区域。综上,本研究中提出的基于斜坡单元的风险性评价方法可以为乡镇(街道)尺度区域地质灾害风险性评价提供一种明确且可靠的方法依据,为区域地质灾害的有效防治提供技术支撑。

       

      Abstract: Background Geological hazard risk refers to the possibility and severity of losses suffered by the disaster bearing body due to geological hazards in a certain area and period. At present, there is a wide range of research on the risk of regional geological hazards, and there are many types of evaluation methods and models applied. In order to explore an effective geological hazard risk evaluation method suitable for township (street) regional scale, this study selects Chengguan Town in Shiquan County, Shaanxi Province, which has a high incidence of geological hazards and hidden dangers, as an example. Methods A full process method for geological hazard risk assessment was proposed, which integrates multiple conditional models and takes slopes as the evaluation unit. The method is based on the comprehensive index method to evaluate susceptibility, the extreme rainfall assumption model, effective rainfall model, and slope unit stability model to evaluate hazard, the weighted sum method of quantitative indicators of the disaster bearing body to evaluate vulnerability, and the comprehensive hazard and vulnerability evaluation method to evaluate risk. Results The research results indicate that the geological hazard susceptibility evaluated based on this method can effectively reveal the geological background characteristics of the disaster prone area. The geological hazard risk can reflect the differences in the degree of geological hazard damage suffered by the area under different rainfall conditions, as well as the spatial differences in regional risk under a certain rainfall condition. The vulnerability of the geological hazard bearing body can quantitatively reflect the loss value of the bearing body after being affected by geological hazards. The final geological hazard risk can accurately classify areas with higher geological hazard risk levels. Conclusions In summary, the risk assessment method based on slope units proposed in this study can provide a clear and reliable method basis for the risk assessment of regional geological disasters at the township (street) scale, and provide technical support for effective prevention and control of regional geological disasters.

       

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