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    乡镇(街道)滑坡地质灾害风险性评价方法研究以安康市石泉县城关镇为例

    Research on the risk assessment method of landslide geological hazard in township (streets)A case study of Chengguan town, Shiquan county of Ankang

    • 摘要: 地质灾害风险性是指承灾体在一定区域和时期内因地质灾害而遭受损失的可能性和严重程度。目前区域地质灾害风险性研究广泛,应用的评价方法及模型种类较多。为了探索一种适用于乡镇(街道)区域尺度有效的滑坡地质灾害风险性评价方法,本研究选取陕西省秦巴山区地质灾害及隐患发育较多的石泉县城关镇为例,以斜坡为评价单元,提出一种融合多种条件模型的滑坡地质灾害风险性评价的全流程方法:基于综合指数法评价易发性,通过极值降雨假设/有效降雨量/斜坡单元稳定性3种条件假设评价危险性,将承灾体定量化指标加权求和评价易损性,通过综合危险性和易损性评价风险性。结果表明:易发性评价结果中,中部丘陵缓坡地带因软弱变质岩地层及强人类活动影响,成为高易发区(比例58.2%),而低扰动中山区易发性最低,历史隐患点空间分布验证了评价结果的合理性;危险性评价中,有效降雨模型和极值降雨假设模型揭示不同降雨工况下区域地质灾害危险性的差异,基于地质灾害群发事件的有效降雨模型计算结果比区域多年极值降雨模型的计算结果更保守,边坡稳定性模型更显著地揭示斜坡单元在空间上的危险性差异;易损性评价通过承灾体属性分析,验证人员与建筑物易损性空间分布的一致性,道路易损性评估结果与路网空间格局吻合,表明评价方法具有较高准确性;综合风险评价划分出极高、高、中、低风险斜坡单元共581个,野外验证显示高风险斜坡单元识别准确率达100%,中低风险斜坡单元因工程治理等人为干预与模型结果存在部分偏差,但仍证实模型理论划分的有效性。综上,本研究中提出的基于斜坡单元的风险性评价方法可为乡镇(街道)尺度区域滑坡地质灾害风险性评价提供明确且可靠的方法,为区域地质灾害的有效防治提供技术支撑。

       

      Abstract:
      Background Geological hazard risk refers to the probability and severity of losses suffered by elements at risk due to geological hazards in a certain area and period. In order to obtain high-precision landslide geological hazard risk background data, the author proposed a landslide geological hazard risk assessment method suitable for the township (street) regional scale. Taking Chengguan town of Shiquan county, Shaanxi province as an example, the author noted that this area is located in the high-incidence zone of landslides in the Qinba Mountains, with high density of geological disasters and hidden dangers. The constructed assessment model can be migrated to areas with similar geological backgrounds.
      Methods The study took the slope as the assessment unit and constructed a full-process assessment method integrating multiple conditional models: the comprehensive index method was used to evaluate the susceptibility. The hazard was evaluated through three conditional assumptions of the extreme rainfall hypothesis, effective rainfall, and slope unit stability. The vulnerability was evaluated by weighted summation of quantitative indicators of elements at risk. Finally, the risk was evaluated by synthesizing the hazard and vulnerability.
      Results The results show that in the susceptibility assessment results, affected by the weak metamorphic rock strata and strong human activities, the hilly gentle slope zone in the middle has become a high-susceptibility area (accounting for 58.2%), and the low-disturbance mid-mountain area had the lowest susceptibility. The spatial distribution of historical hidden danger points verified the rationality of the assessment results. In the hazard assessment, the effective rainfall model and the extreme rainfall hypothesis model revealed the differences in regional geological hazards under different rainfall conditions. The effective rainfall model based on historical disaster occurrence events was more conservative than the regional multi-year extreme rainfall model, while the slope stability model more significantly revealed the spatial hazard differences of slope units. In the vulnerability assessment, through the analysis of the attributes of elements at risk, the consistency of the spatial distribution of personnel and building vulnerability was verified, and the road vulnerability assessment results were consistent with the spatial pattern of the road network. The comprehensive risk assessment divided 581 slope units into extremely high, high, moderate, and low risks. Field verification showed that the identification accuracy of high-risk slope units reaches 100%, and there were some deviations between moderate and low-risk slope units and the model results.
      Conclusions In summary, the geological hazard risk assessment method based on slope units proposed in this study may provide both a reliable solution for higher-precision landslide geological hazard risk assessment at the township (street) regional scale and technical support for regional geological hazard prevention and control.

       

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