Abstract:
ObjectiveThe objective of this study was to quantitatively describe the snow ablation process during the snowmelt period in the Northeast Black Soil Region. Methods To this end, a multilayer snowmelt model was established based on the principle of energy balance. This model was used to simulate, analyze, and validate the physical properties of snow, energy transfer and compaction within the snow, and snow depth during the snowmelt process of the 2022 snowmelt in the Jixing subwatershed of Meihekou city. Results The model accurately simulated snow surface temperature, and the variation trend was generally consistent with that of air temperature. The mean absolute error (MAE) of snow surface temperature was 0.63 °C for the multilayer snowmelt model and 3.88 °C for the single-layer energy balance model. Simulated snow density ranged from 180 to 274 kg/m³ with a mean of 231 kg/m³, while observed values ranged from 181 to 280 kg/m³ with a mean of 239 kg/m³. The Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient was 0.73 and the MAE was 7.66 kg/m³, indicating good agreement between simulations and observations. Snow layer pressure increased with snow depth, and the interactions among temperature, density, and pressure jointly influenced the internal structure and depth evolution of the snowpack. In snow depth simulations, model performance in 2017 was relatively low. After sensitivity analysis and parameter calibration, the Nash coefficient for 2022 increased from 0.87 to 0.97 and the MAE decreased from 0.98 cm to −0.09 cm. The calibrated results yielded Nash coefficients of 0.96 and 0.97 and MAE values of 1.01 cm and 1.04 cm for 2017 and 2018, respectively. The revised model demonstrated stable applicability under different annual snow conditions and can be extended to longer time series and more diverse snow environments. ConclusionsThese findings substantiate the model's validity. The model provides a reliable theoretical basis for predicting snow depth during the snowmelt period and serves as a reference value for studying snow ablation in other regions.