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    基于DEMATEL-ANP法的生产建设项目水土保持效果评价

    Evaluation of soil and water conservation effect in production and construction projects based on DEMATEL-ANP method

    • 摘要: 滞洪区生产建设项目水土保持效果直接影响防洪体系效果的发挥。对滞洪区生产建设项目中的水土保持效果进行全面评估,识别并计算关键影响因素及其权重,可有效提高水土保持决策及方案编制的科学性和实用性。以山东省湖东滞洪区建设工程为研究评价对象,选用决策实验室分析法(DEMATEL)−网络分析法(ANP),建立包含6个准则层、16个指标层的网络分析结构,构建生产建设项目水土保持效果评价指标体系。评价结果显示,水土流失治理度、土壤流失控制比、流失强度等级直接影响整体评价结果;严重危害事件发生的次数、乱倒乱弃或顺坡溜渣的数量扩大扰动面积的数量及临时措施落实不及时、不到位的数量应优先作为决策的核心依据;山东省湖东滞洪区项目2019—2022年水土保持效果综合评价指数分别为0.749、0.576、0.823和0.712,水土保持效果表现依次为良、中、优、良,总体表现良好。山东省湖东滞洪区工程建设过程中水土保持工作总体表现良好,具有较好的水土保持效益。研究结果可为同类型生产建设项目的水土保持效果评价提供参考。

       

      Abstract:
      Background The effect of soil and water conservation of production and construction projects in flood detention area directly affects the effect of flood control system. The traditional evaluation of soil and water conservation effectiveness is faced with problems such as non-linear correlation between indicators and unreasonable weight distribution. The error rate of the combined method of DEMATEL and ANP in complex system evaluation is lower than that of the traditional model. The comprehensive evaluation of soil and water conservation benefits of production and construction projects is carried out, and the key influencing factors and their weights are identified, which can effectively improve the scientific and practical nature of soil and water conservation decision-making and programming.
      Methods Taking the project of Hudong flood detention area in Shandong province as the research object, the DEMATEL method was used to determine the influence relationship between the index factors, and the ANP method was used to determine the comprehensive weight of the evaluation index. Based on the evaluation of soil and water conservation effect of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation, a network analysis structure including 6 criterion layers and 16 index layers is established, and the evaluation index system of soil and water conservation benefit of production and construction projects is constructed.
      Results 1) The soil and water loss intensity grade (c3), soil loss control ratio (c2) and soil and water loss conservation ratio (c1) have high centrality, which are 2.2620, 2.276 and 2.455 respectively, which directly affect the overall evaluation results. 2) The ANP weights of the number of occurrences of serious hazard events (h2), the number of disorderly abandoned or downhill slag (w2) and the number of temporary measures implemented untimely and inadequately (m3) are 0.168, 0.141, and 0.123, which should be given priority as the core basis for decision-making. 3) Waste residue protection ratio (w1), vegetation coverage ratio (m4), forest and grass vegetation restoration ratio (m5) are important indicators to connect the top and bottom factors, and have the function of connecting the preceding and the following in the system. 4) The comprehensive evaluation indices of soil and water conservation effectiveness for the Hudong Flood Detention Area Project in Shandong province from 2019 to 2022 were 0.749, 0.576, 0.823, and 0.712, respectively, with the effectiveness rated as good, moderate, excellent, and good, indicating an overall favorable performance.
      Conclusion The soil and water conservation measures implemented during the construction of the Hudong Flood Detention Area Project in Shandong province have demonstrated commendable performance, yielding significant ecological and hydrological benefits. The DEMATEL-ANP integrated evaluation methodology proves effective in assessing such production-construction projects, as it not only elucidates the interdependent relationships among evaluation indicators but also substantially mitigates the subjective biases inherent in conventional analytic network process applications within decision-making frameworks. The research results can provide reference for the evaluation of soil and water conservation effect of the same type of production and construction projects.

       

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