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    基于IV-RF耦合模型与空间约束采样的滑坡易发性评价优化--以湖南省耒阳市为例

    Optimization of Landslide Susceptibility Assessment Based on IV-RF Coupled Model and Spatial Constrained Sampling: A Case Study in Leiyang City, Hunan Province

    • 摘要: 【目的】耒阳市滑坡灾害频发,对人民生命财产和生态安全构成严重威胁。为提高滑坡易发性评价的精度,构建一种适应性强、普适性高的评价方法成为研究重点。【方法】本文以湖南省耒阳市为研究区,构建信息量模型(Information Value model, IV)与随机森林模型(Random Forest, RF)耦合的IV-RF模型,引入空间约束采样策略优化负样本选取,开展滑坡易发性评价。通过ROC曲线和AUC值对三种模型进行对比分析,同时提出综合性能指数用于综合评价模型表现。【结果】研究发现:(1)IV-RF耦合模型表现优于单一模型,AUC值达0.891,综合性能指数(Accuracy+F1+MCC)为2.593。极高-高易发区滑坡点分布密集,极低-低易发区滑坡点极少,验证了模型的空间预测能力。(2)地层岩性因子是影响研究区滑坡发育最重要的评价因子之一;【结论】IV-RF耦合模型结合了IV的数据定量解译与RF的非线性识别能力,可有效提升模型识别精度。研究结果可为研究区滑坡灾害风险防控、水土保持和国土空间规划提供科学依据。

       

      Abstract: Background Landslides in Leiyang City occur frequently, causing severe threats to local residents' lives and properties, damaging infrastructure such as roads and buildings, and disrupting the regional ecological balance by destroying vegetation and soil structure. Given these challenges, developing an evaluation method with strong adaptability and high universality to improve the accuracy of landslide susceptibility assessment has become a key focus in geological disaster research. Methods This study selects Leiyang City, Hunan Province, as the research area. It constructs an IV-RF model by coupling the Information Value (IV) model and the Random Forest (RF) model: the IV model quantifies the correlation between influencing factors and landslide occurrence through statistical analysis, while the RF model enhances nonlinear relationship recognition using ensemble learning. To optimize negative sample selection, a spatial constraint sampling strategy is introduced, which ensures negative samples are distributed reasonably in non-landslide areas and avoids spatial autocorrelation interference. For model comparison, the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve and Area Under the Curve (AUC) value are used to analyze the IV, RF, and IV-RF models. Additionally, a comprehensive performance index integrating Accuracy, F1 score, and Matthews Correlation Coefficient (MCC) is proposed to comprehensively measure model performance from multiple dimensions. Results The research findings are as follows: (1) The IV-RF coupled model shows superior performance over single models. Its AUC value reaches 0.891, significantly higher than the IV model (0.786) and RF model (0.832). The comprehensive performance index (Accuracy+F1+MCC) of the IV-RF model is 2.593, exceeding the IV model (2.105) and RF model (2.347). Spatially, over 85% of landslide points are concentrated in extremely high-high susceptibility zones, while less than 5% are in extremely low-low susceptibility zones, fully verifying the model's strong spatial prediction capability. (2) Lithology is identified as the most critical factor affecting landslide development. Among various lithological units, thin-bedded slate and meta-sandstone interlayers show the highest contribution to landslide susceptibility due to their weak mechanical properties and vulnerability to weathering, followed by factors such as slope gradient and distance to faults. Conclusions The IV-RF coupled model effectively integrates the IV model's advantage in quantitative data interpretation with the RF model's strength in nonlinear pattern recognition, significantly improving the accuracy of landslide identification. These results provide a scientific basis for targeted landslide disaster risk prevention (e.g., early warning system construction in high-susceptibility zones), soil and water conservation measures (e.g., vegetation restoration in fragile lithological areas), and rational land spatial planning. The method demonstrates strong adaptability to complex geological environments with diverse lithology and topographic conditions, offering important technical reference for landslide susceptibility assessment in other regions with similar geological and climatic characteristics.

       

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