Abstract: Background The middle reaches of the Yellow River represent a critical ecological zone highly susceptible to soil erosion, especially in the Lvliang Mountains, which severely threatens regional ecological security and sustainable development. Understanding the impact of land use change on soil erosion in this sensitive area is urgently needed for water and soil conservation and ecological restoration efforts. Methods In this paper, the spatial and temporal characteristics of land use changes and soil erosion in the core zone of the middle Yellow River basin in Lvliang Mountains were analyzed based on the FLUS and InVEST models from 2003 to 2023. Combined with multi-source datasets including land use data, population, gross domestic product, rainfall, digital elevation model, soil properties and road network data. The FLUS model was employed to conduct Kappa coefficient validation for the land use data of 5 periods, the InVEST model was then used to simulate soil erosion magnitude. And further simulated the impacts of land use changes on soil erosion under the different scenarios (S1: natural development scenario, S2: economic priority development scenario, S3: cultivated land protection scenario, S4: ecological protection scenario) in 2033. Results The results showed that: (1) The land use types were dominated by cultivated land, forestland, grassland and construction land and they changed significantly in Lvliang Mountains from 2003 to 2023. The land use structure showed a trend of “2 decreases and 2 increases”. The cultivated land and the grassland decreased 4.04% and 10.66%, respectively, while forestland and construction land increased significantly 20.50% and 58.25%, respectively. The bidirectional conversion between “grassland—cultivated land”, as well as conversion from grassland to forest land were the most prominent types of land use change. (2) The cumulative soil erosion amount per unit area has decreased remarkably by 85.1% during the past 20 years. Among them, the soil erosion in forestland, grassland and cultivated land decreased by 86.18%, 85.82% and 84.18%, respectively. Furthermore, the spatial distribution pattern remained relatively stable, showing a characteristic of higher in west and south, lower in east and north. The western Linfen—Lvliang region continues to be the highest erosion risk zone, accounting for approximately 15% of the total study area.(3) Multi-scenario simulations indicated that soil erosion is regulated by land use areas and spatial distribution in 2033. The impact of land use pattern on soil erosion in future are significantly different. Among these scenarios, the economic development scenario (S2) is the most optimized land use structure. The overall soil erosion intensity indicated that grassland (3.263×106 t) is the highest erosion intensity, followed by the cultivated land (2.162×106 t) and forestland (0.797×106 t). Forestland demonstrates significantly superior erosion resistance compared to other land cover types. Conclusions The implementation of ecological conservation policies in the Lvliang Mountains significantly mitigated soil erosion intensity, indicating their role as a dominant factor. To further reduce regional erosion risks, it is essential to enhance the construction of terrace-check-dam systems, promote coordinated allocation of water and soil resources, and optimize territorial spatial planning. This study establishes a scientific foundation for decision-making in mitigating soil erosion, ecological conservation, regional spatial optimization in the Lvliang Mountains.