Objective The middle reaches of the Yellow River Basin represent a critical ecological zone highly susceptible to soil erosion, particularly in the Lüliang Mountains, which severely threatens regional ecological security and sustainable development. Investigating the impact of land use change on soil erosion in this sensitive area of soil erosion helps optimize regional spatial layout and provide a scientific basis for ecological conservation and sustainable development in the Yellow River Basin.

Methods This study analyzed the spatiotemporal characteristics of land use change and soil erosion in the Lüliang Mountains from 2003 to 2023 using the FLUS and InVEST models. The analysis was combined with multi-source data, including land use data, population, gross domestic product, rainfall, digital elevation model, soil properties, and road network data. The FLUS model was employed to conduct Kappa coefficient validation for the land use data of five periods, and the InVEST model was then used to simulate soil erosion magnitude. Furthermore, the impact of land use change on soil erosion under four different scenarios in 2033 was simulated (S1: natural development scenario; S2: economic priority development scenario; S3: cultivated land protection scenario; S4: ecological protection scenario).

Results 1) Land use types in the Lüliang Mountains were dominated by cultivated land, forestland, grassland, and construction land, and they changed significantly from 2003 to 2023. The land use structure exhibited a trend of “two decreases and two increases”. The cultivated land and grassland decreased by 4.04% and 10.66%, respectively, while forestland and construction land increased significantly by 20.50% and 58.25%, respectively. The bidirectional conversion between grassland and cultivated land, as well as conversion from grassland to forestland, were the most prominent types of land use change. 2) The cumulative soil erosion per unit area decreased remarkably by 85.1% over the past 20 years. Among them, soil erosion in forestland, grassland, and cultivated land decreased by 86.18%, 85.82%, and 84.18%, respectively. Additionally, the spatial distribution pattern remained relatively stable, characterized by higher erosion in the west and south and lower erosion in the east and north. The western Linfen–Lüliang region continued to be the highest erosion risk zone, accounting for approximately 15% of the total study area. 3) Multi-scenario simulations revealed that future soil erosion would be strongly regulated by the area and spatial arrangement of land use. The impact of land use patterns on future soil erosion was significantly different. Under the different scenarios, the economic development scenario (S2) exhibited the most optimized land use structure. The overall erosion intensity indicated that grassland (3.263 × 10⁶ t) had the highest erosion intensity, followed by cultivated land (2.162 × 10⁶ t) and forestland (0.797 × 10⁶ t), demonstrating that forestland exhibited significantly superior erosion resistance compared to other land use types.

Conclusions The implementation of ecological conservation policies in the Lüliang Mountains significantly mitigates soil erosion intensity, indicating their role as a dominant factor. To further reduce regional soil erosion risks, it is essential to enhance the construction of terrace–check dam systems, coordinate the allocation of water and soil resources, and optimize territorial spatial planning. This study establishes a scientific foundation for decision-making in soil erosion mitigation, ecological conservation, and regional spatial optimization in the Lüliang Mountains.