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    物种分布模型:概念类型、建模预测及生态系统管理应用

    Species Distribution Models: Conceptual Typologies, Modeling Predictions, and Applications in Ecosystem Management

    • 摘要: 基于生态位原理的物种分布模型对于研究、模拟和预测气候变化下物种的潜在分布以及提升生态系统管理水平具有重要应用前景。本文总结了物种分布模型的概念与类型,概述了环境包络建模、回归建模和机器学习建模3种建模方法与数据准备、模型选择和模型评估构成的3步模拟预测方法,评述了气候变化背景下其在森林、草地、海洋、湿地、农田和城市等其在5种典型生态系统管理中的应用,包括森林植物适生区与气候变化的关系、海洋珍稀生物的栖息地分布与保护、湿地面积减少及生物多样性降低机制、入侵物种对农作物的影响以及城市生态系统生物栖息地退化破碎等,森林生态系统中,用于评估气候变化和森林干扰对物种分布的动态影响;湿地生态系统中,预测外来入侵物种对本地物种分布格局的威胁;农业生态系统中,有效识别气候变化下主要农作物适生区变化与病虫害的潜在扩展趋势;城市生态系统中,划分栖息地适生等级与评估生物多样性保护潜力;海洋生态系统中,揭示表层物种地理分布模式及对环境变化的响应。最后,本文展望了从未来物种分布模型的动态生态机制深度整合、融合多源数据与智能技术的深度融合和生态系统服务评价模型的耦合应用等发展方向方面进行了展望,以期为物种分布模型的发展与应用提供参考。

       

      Abstract: Background Species distribution models (SDMs), grounded fundamentally in Hutchinson's ecological niche concept and biogeographical principles, constitute indispensable analytical frameworks for investigating, simulating, and projecting the potential geographical distributions of species under current and future climate change scenarios. The SDMs offer important support for scientific ecosystem management by forecasting emergent spatial ecological patterns and elucidating species' potential responses to diverse environmental disturbances, including shifting climatic regimes, habitat fragmentation, and anthropogenic land-use alterations. This comprehensive review synthesizes the concepts and types of SDMs, outlining prevalent methodologies and their diverse applications in ecosystem management. based on the ecological niche principle are important for studying, simulating, and predicting the potential distribution of species in the context of climate change, as well as for improving ecosystem management. Methods This paper summarizes the concepts and types of species distribution models and outlines three modeling approaches: environmental envelope techniques (e.g., BIOCLIM), which define species' fundamental niches by identifying environmental extremes from occurrence data;, regression analyses (e.g., GLM, MARS), employing statistical relationships between presence/absence records and predictor variables;, and machine learning (e.g., MaxEnt, RF, ANN) leveraging complex, non-linear pattern recognition capabilities. The fundamental predictive workflow was structured into three critical steps: (1)It also describes a three-step simulation and prediction method consisting of data preparation-compiling species occurrence records (presence-only, presence/absence) and spatially explicit environmental variables (climate, terrain, soil);, (2) model selection-choosing appropriate algorithms based on data quality and objectives;, and (3) model evaluation-applying metrics (AUC, TSS) to validate prediction accuracy and robustness. These methods enable the construction of reliable predictive models that incorporate species occurrence records and relevant environmental variables to infer potential geographic distributions. The efficacy of SDM outputs was assessed across five distinct ecosystem management contexts. Results Key applications demonstrated include:It reviews the applications of species distribution models in typical ecosystem management in the context of climate change. 1) Forest ecosystems: Quantify the dynamic impacts of climate-driven and disturbance-driven changes in species ranges; 2) Wetland ecosystems: Project invasive species spread and native biodiversity threats; 3) Agricultural ecosystems: Delineate crop suitability shifts and pest/disease expansion risks; 4) Urban ecosystems: Rank habitat suitability and assessing the potential for biodiversity conservation; 5) Marine ecosystems: Reveal surface-dwelling species' spatial dynamics under ocean warming. The study further highlights future directions for SDM development. These applications provide critical spatial predictions for developing proactive conservation and management strategies.1) Species distribution models in forest ecosystems can predict suitable areas for forest species in the context of climate change. 2) Species distribution models in wetland ecosystems can reduce wetland area and decrease biodiversity. 3) In agro-ecosystems, species distribution models simulate crop growth trends and prevent the impact of invasive species on crops. 4) In urban ecosystems, these models integrate ocean climate, biophysical, and distance data to protect the habitats of rare organisms. 5) In urban ecosystems, species distribution models can optimize urban ecological patterns and protect biodiversity when combined with urban ecological networks. In marine ecosystems, species distribution models can integrate marine climatic, biophysical, and distance data to protect the habitats of rare organisms. Conclusion The review underscores the vital role of SDMs as powerful tools for translating species-environment relationships into actionable insights for ecosystem management under global change. Future development directions include: 1) EnhancedProspects are presented in terms of deep integration of dynamic ecological mechanisms (e.g., dispersal, biotic interactions, adaptive evolution) to improve temporal projection realism; 2) Deeper integration of multi-source data (remote sensing, genomics, citizen science) with advanced AI/machine learning to refine model accuracy and resolution;, intelligent technology, and 3) Closer coupling with ecosystem service evaluation modeling in future species distribution models to optimize conservation resource allocation. SDMs constitute indispensable tools for predicting biotic redistribution patterns in changing environments, enabling evidence-based ecosystem management strategies. Advancing SDMs along these avenues is crucial for strengthening their scientific foundation and practical utility in guiding adaptive ecosystem management.This is intended to provide references for developing and applying species distribution models.

       

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