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    物种分布模型:概念类型、建模预测及生态系统管理应用

    Species distribution models: Conceptual typologies, modeling predictions, and applications in ecosystem management

    • 摘要: 基于生态位原理的物种分布模型对于研究、模拟和预测气候变化下物种的潜在分布以及提升生态系统管理水平具有重要应用前景。本文总结物种分布模型的概念与类型,概述环境包络建模、回归建模和机器学习建模3种建模方法与数据准备、模型选择和模型评估构成的3步模拟预测方法。该模型在5种典型生态系统管理中得到应用,在森林生态系统中,用于评估气候变化和森林干扰对物种分布的动态影响;湿地生态系统中,预测外来入侵物种对本地物种分布格局的威胁;农业生态系统中,有效识别气候变化下主要农作物适生区变化与病虫害的潜在扩展趋势;城市生态系统中,划分栖息地适生等级与评估生物多样性保护潜力;海洋生态系统中,揭示表层物种地理分布模式及对环境变化的响应。未来物种分布模型的动态生态机制整合、多源数据与智能技术的深度融合和生态系统服务评价模型的耦合应用等发展方向,可为物种分布模型的发展与应用提供参考。

       

      Abstract: Species distribution models (SDMs), grounded fundamentally in Hutchinson's ecological niche concept and biogeographical principles, serve as indispensable analytical frameworks for investigating, simulating, and projecting the potential geographical distributions of species under current and future climate change scenarios. The SDMs offer important support for scientific ecosystem management by predicting emergent spatial ecological patterns and elucidating species' potential responses to diverse environmental disturbances, including changing climatic regimes, habitat fragmentation, and anthropogenic land use changes. This comprehensive review integrates the concepts and types of SDMs and outlines prevalent methodologies and their diverse applications in ecosystem management. This paper summarizes the concepts and types of species distribution models and outlines three modeling approaches: environmental envelope techniques (e.g., BIOCLIM), which define species' fundamental niches by identifying environmental extremes from occurrence data; regression analyses (e.g., GLM, MARS), employing statistical relationships between presence/absence records and predictor variables; and machine learning (e.g., MaxEnt, RF, ANN) leveraging complex, non-linear pattern recognition capabilities. The fundamental predictive workflow consists of three critical steps: 1) data preparation—compiling species occurrence records (presence-only, presence/absence) and spatially explicit environmental variables (climate, terrain, soil); 2) model selection—choosing appropriate algorithms based on data quality and objectives; and 3) model evaluation—applying indicators (AUC, TSS) to validate prediction accuracy and robustness. These methods enable the construction of reliable predictive models that incorporate species occurrence records and relevant environmental variables to infer potential geographic distributions. The effectiveness of SDM outputs is assessed across five distinct ecosystem management contexts. Key applications demonstrated include: 1) forest ecosystems: quantifying the dynamic impacts of climate-driven and disturbance-driven changes in species ranges; 2) wetland ecosystems: predicting invasive species spread and native biodiversity threats; 3) agricultural ecosystems: delineating crop suitability shifts and pest/disease expansion risks; 4) urban ecosystems: ranking habitat suitability and assessing the potential for biodiversity conservation; 5) marine ecosystems: revealing spatial dynamics of surface-dwelling species under ocean warming. The study further highlights future directions for SDM development. These applications provide critical spatial predictions for developing proactive conservation and management strategies. The review underscores the vital role of SDMs as powerful tools for translating species-environment relationships into practical insights for ecosystem management under global change. Future development directions include: 1) enhanced integration of dynamic ecological mechanisms (e.g., dispersal, biotic interactions, adaptive evolution) to improve temporal projection realism; 2) deeper integration of multi-source data (remote sensing, genomics, citizen science) with advanced AI/machine learning to refine model accuracy and resolution; and 3) closer coupling with ecosystem service evaluation modeling to optimize conservation resource allocation. SDMs constitute indispensable tools for predicting biotic redistribution patterns in changing environments, enabling evidence-based ecosystem management strategies. Advancing SDMs along these pathways is crucial for strengthening their scientific foundation and practical utility in guiding adaptive ecosystem management.

       

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