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    全球变化背景下骤旱时空分布、机制与影响

    Spatiotemporal patterns, mechanisms, and impacts of flash droughts under global change

    • 摘要: 在全球气候变化日益加剧的背景下,干旱模式从缓旱向骤旱(Flash drought)的全球性范式转型。骤旱作为一种快速发生且破坏性强的极端气候事件,正对全球社会经济和生态环境安全构成严峻挑战。本文首先梳理了骤旱概念的演变,明确了当前以“快速增强、干旱形成、产生影响”为核心三要素的定义框架。在此基础上深入解构了驱动骤旱的物理机制,论证了全球变化如何通过大气、海洋和陆地三个层面的协同作用非线性地放大骤旱风险,深入剖析其在全球变化框架下的核心科学问题。已有观测与模拟证据表明,全球干旱增强速率在过去数十年显著加快,且未来情景下骤旱的频率和强度将持续上升。骤旱的危害性体现在其与热浪等灾害并发形成的复合效应,以及对农业、生态与水资源产生的级联影响。鉴于此,本文最后探讨了应对骤旱的适应与减缓策略,强调了构建高时空分辨率的多指标融合监测预警系统、突破次季节到季节尺度的预报瓶颈、以及建立从地方到全球的系统性风险治理框架的必要性。本综述旨在为深化骤旱的科学理解、提升防灾减灾能力及制定相关气候政策提供科学依据。

       

      Abstract: Background Amidst the intensifying backdrop of global climate change, a global paradigm shift from conventional, slow-onset droughts to flash droughts is underway. As rapidly developing and highly destructive extreme events, flash droughts pose a severe challenge to global socioeconomic and ecological security. Methods This paper first traces the evolution of the flash drought concept, clarifying the current definition framework, which centers on three core elements: rapid intensification, drought onset, and adverse impacts. It further deconstructs the physical mechanisms, demonstrating how global change non-linearly amplifies flash drought risk through synergistic interactions across the atmosphere, ocean, and land, and examines the core scientific questions within this framework. Results Observational and modeling evidence indicates a significant acceleration in the global intensification rate of droughts over recent decades, with future scenarios projecting a continued rise in the frequency and intensity of flash drought events. The destructive potential of flash droughts is compounded by their concurrence with other extreme events, such as heatwaves, leading to compound disasters and cascading impacts across agriculture, ecosystems, and water resources. Conclusions In light of these challenges, the paper concludes by exploring adaptation and mitigation strategies for flash droughts. It highlights the urgent need to: (1) establishing high-resolution, multi-indicator integrated monitoring and early warning systems; (2) overcoming forecasting limitations at sub-seasonal to seasonal timescales; and (3) establishing a comprehensive risk governance framework from local to global scales. This article aims to advance scientific understanding of flash droughts, strengthen disaster risk reduction capacities, and provide a scientific basis for climate-related policy formulation.

       

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