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    变化环境下干热河谷区生态系统服务功能时空演变机理与优化研究框架与展望

    Spatiotemporal evolution mechanisms and optimization of ecosystem services in dry-hot valleys under changing environments

    • 摘要: 干热河谷地区水热矛盾突出,是我国水土保持重点防治区。受人类活动及气候变化影响,该区水源涵养、土壤保持等生态系统服务功能供给水平总体呈下降趋势。但当前研究多聚焦小区或坡面尺度土壤保持功能影响机制,缺乏多尺度、多生态系统服务功能的综合分析及其未来变化响应预估。本研究拟采用定位观测实验和数值模拟等方法,监测多时空尺度云南干热河谷区水源涵养、土壤保持及气候调节服务功能变化,厘清人为扰动下的水-土-沙耦合过程与主控因子,从而构建高分辨率生态系统服务功能综合评估模型。在此基础上,模拟并分析生态系统服务功能的时空分布及演变规律,探究其气候变化及人类活动驱动机制;利用CMIP6未来情景预估资料驱动生态系统服务综合评估模型,解析未来多种社会经济发展路径情景下生态系统服务功能的变化及响应程度;最终提出云南干热河谷区生态系统服务功能的提升路径和优化策略,为生态系统可持续发展及生态效益保障提供理论依据和方法参考。

       

      Abstract: Background The water-heat imbalance and soil erosion prevalent in dry-hot valleys make them important targets for soil and water conservation efforts in China. However, human activities and climate change have resulted in the degradation of ecosystem service functions, particularly in water supply and soil conservation in these regions. Previous research has predominantly concentrated on soil conservation at plot or slope scales, overlooking the broader issues of ecosystem service functions across various spatiotemporal scales and their future changes in response to changing conditions. Methods and results This project aims to employ point observation and numerical simulations to monitor the changes in water conservation, soil conservation, and climate regulation functions in dry-hot valleys across Yunnan province, encompassing diverse spatiotemporal scales. By scrutinizing water-soil-sand coupling process and its principal influencers amid human disturbance, the aim is to construct a finely resolved model for integrated assessment of ecosystem service functions. Leveraging the developed model, the project will examine the spatiotemporal patterns and the trends in ecosystem service functions, and investigate their underlying mechanisms propelled by climate change and human activities. Meanwhile, this project will explore how ecosystem service functions fluctuate and adapt to forthcoming environmental changes by utilizing CMIP6 future scenario projections to drive the ecosystem service model. Conclusions Ultimately, the project will propose pathways for enhancing and optimizing ecosystem service functions in Yunnan’s dry-hot valleys, furnishing theoretical and methodological frameworks to bolster the region’s sustainable development and ecological well-being.

       

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