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    淤地坝运行安全与风险评价以内蒙古后沙坝为例

    Operational safety and risk evaluation of check dams: A case study of Housha Check Dam in Inner Mongolia

    • 摘要:
      目的 本研究旨在科学评估内蒙古黄土高原淤地坝的运行风险等级,为该区域淤地坝的风险预警与工程管理提供理论支撑。
      方法 首先运用决策实验室分析法(DEMATEL)识别关键影响指标,构建多维度分层次的风险评价指标体系;其次采用模糊层次分析法(FAHP)与序关系分析法(G1法)分别确定指标权重,并通过博弈论完成权重融合以保障分配合理性;最后基于云模型实现定量评估,通过逆向云发生器计算指标云特征值,结合权重利用正向云发生器生成综合评价云,同时引入云相似度量化其对不同评价等级的隶属度。
      结果 以内蒙古后沙坝为研究对象的实证分析表明,该淤地坝运行风险评价等级为“基本安全”,归一化隶属度达70.5%,且该结果与模糊综合评价法、集对分析结果高度一致,与工程实际情况相符。
      结论 研究证实,所构建的评价体系与方法具有有效性和合理性,能够准确反映淤地坝运行安全与风险状态,可为同类区域淤地坝的风险管控提供可靠参考。

       

      Abstract:
      Objective This study aims to scientifically evaluate the operational risk level of check dams on the Loess Plateau in Inner Mongolia, thereby providing theoretical support for risk warning and engineering management of check dams in this region.
      Methods First, a multi-dimensional and hierarchical risk evaluation indicator system was constructed by identifying key influencing indicators using the decision-making trial and evaluation laboratory (DEMATEL) method. Second, the weights of the indicators were determined separately via the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (FAHP) and the order relation analysis (G1) method, and game theory was applied for weight fusion to ensure the rationality of weight allocation. Finally, quantitative assessment was performed based on the cloud model. Specifically, the cloud characteristic values of the indicators were calculated using the backward cloud generator, and the comprehensive evaluation cloud was generated by combining indicator weights with the forward cloud generator. Additionally, cloud similarity was introduced to quantify the membership degree of the comprehensive evaluation cloud to different evaluation grades.
      Results An empirical analysis was conducted with the Housha Check Dam in Inner Mongolia as the research object, and the results showed that the operational risk evaluation level of the check dam was “basically safe,” with a normalized membership degree of 70.5%. This result was highly consistent with those obtained using the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method and the set pair analysis method and matched the actual engineering situation.
      Conclusions This study confirms that the constructed evaluation system and method are effective and reasonable. It can accurately reflect the operational safety and risk status of check dams, and provide reliable references for risk management and control of check dams in similar regions.

       

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