Objective This study aims to investigate the impact of long-term land use changes on the spatiotemporal variation of soil erosion and to predict the spatial distribution of land use in 2030.

Methods This study employed GIS spatial analysis techniques and the RUSLE model to quantitatively analyze the spatiotemporal variation of soil erosion in the Xinshui River Basin in the middle reaches of the Yellow River. On this basis, the PLUS model was utilized to simulate and visualize the land use distribution in 2030 under three scenarios: baseline development, farmland protection, and ecological protection.

Results 1) The area of forestland in the Xinshui River Basin showed an increasing trend from 1995 to 2020, rising from 8.85 × 10⁴ hm² to 1.16 × 10⁵ hm². The areas of farmland and grassland decreased to 9.48 × 10⁴ hm² and 2.16 × 10⁵ hm² in 2020, which were 3.27% and 11.48% lower than those in 1995, respectively. The construction land area continuously increased from 773.23 hm² in 1995 to 2.99 × 10³ hm² in 2020. 2) The soil erosion modulus in Xinshui River Basin showed a trend of first decreasing and then increasing. It decreased from 76.37 t/(hm²·a) to 64.24 t/(hm²·a) in 2015, and then increased to 97.31 t/(hm²·a) in 2020. The area of moderate and lower erosion increased, while the area of high-intensity soil erosion above moderate erosion decreased significantly. The area of slight erosion increased from 2.41 × 10⁵ hm² in 1995 to 2.58 × 10⁵ hm² in 2020. 3) Under the baseline development, farmland protection, and ecological protection scenarios, both forestland and construction land area in the Xinshui River Basin showed an increasing trend. Among them, the increase in construction land area was the smallest under the ecological protection scenario.

Conclusions In the Xinshui River Basin, the coverage of forest and grass has been continuously increasing, and the intensity of soil erosion has shown a decreasing trend over the past 25 years.