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    半干旱草原型流域气象水文干旱传播特性和影响

    Characteristics and impacts of meteorological-hydrological drought propagation in semi-arid steppe basins

    • 摘要: 背景 全球气候变暖导致干旱事件频发并加速水循环过程,对半干旱草原型流域生态环境产生深远影响。方法基于1979—2018年标准化降水蒸散发指数和标准化径流指数,采用游程理论提取了气象、水文干旱事件特征,确定水文干旱对气象干旱的滞后响应时间。进一步利用匹配法识别气象、水文干旱传播事件,在此基础上构建线性干旱传播模型,量化气象干旱触发水文干旱的特征阈值,绘制植被恢复时间与传播型复合干旱事件特征关系曲线。结果1)1979—2018年,流域共发生气象干旱73次,水文干旱60次,气象干旱向水文干旱传播时间约为3个月。2)与2000年前相比,2000年后气象、水文干旱发生频率降低,但历时延长、强度增强,事件匹配率分别提高约44.5%和31.3%。3)气象、水文干旱事件的历时、烈度与草地植被恢复时间均呈显著线性关系。4)随着干旱加剧,2000年后植被平均恢复时间较2000年前延长了1个月以上。结论本研究可为半干旱草原型流域气候变化下生态保护提供借鉴,以提升该地区气候变化下的植被适应能力。

       

      Abstract: Background With global warming accelerating the water cycle and increasing the frequency of drought events, semi-arid grassland basins are profoundly affected. Methods This study utilized the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) and standardized runoff index (SRI) from 1979 to 2018 to analyze the lag time of meteorological drought propagation to hydrological drought using the Pearson correlation coefficient. Run theory was applied to identify the characteristics of meteorological and hydrological drought events. A linear drought propagation model was constructed based on matched meteorological-hydrological drought events, quantifying the triggering thresholds of meteorological drought on hydrological drought. Our study developed curves linking recovery time with drought characteristics. Results 1) From 1979 to 2018, 73 meteorological and 60 hydrological droughts were recorded, with significant differences in drought characteristics and event matching rates across phases. 2) Compared to T1 (1979–2000), T2 (2000–2018) showed decreased drought frequency but longer duration, greater intensity, and increased event matching rates by 44.46% and 31.25%, respectively. 3) Meteorological-hydrological droughts significantly impacted vegetation recovery time, showing a linear relationship. 4) As drought intensified, the average vegetation recovery time post-2000 was over a month longer than pre-2000. Conclusions This study provides insights for ecological conservation in semi-arid grassland basins under climate change, contributing to enhanced vegetation resilience in these regions.

       

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