Abstract:
【Background】The rapid advancement of urbanization has resulted in the extensive conversion of cultivated land, pushing the development of new cultivated land towards steeper slopes. Existing research primarily addresses the spatial redistribution of cultivated land quantity but pays insufficient attention to slope, a critical natural factor influencing cultivated land quality and productivity.【Methods】This study focuses on Shandong Province as the research area. Using land use data, digital elevation models, and natural and socio-economic factor data from representative periods between 1990 and 2020, we apply methods such as slope spectrum curves, the cultivated land slope index, and geographical detector analysis to examine the trend of cultivated land shifting toward higher slopes. We also investigate the characteristics of cultivated land loss and compensation across different slope gradients and identify the primary driving factors behind this upward shift.【Results】(1) Cultivated land in the study area expanded into regions with steeper slopes, with the proportion of cultivated land on slopes greater than 15° increasing by 0.55%. The Jiaodong peninsula hilly region for water storage and soil conservation (Ⅲ-4-1xt) and the South-central Shandong low mountain and hilly region for soil conservation (Ⅲ-4-2t) were identified as the core areas driving this increase in slope cultivation. Notably, the slopes of newly added cultivated land consistently exceeded those of lost cultivated land, and the area experiencing a "significant shift to higher slopes" expanded dramatically between 2000 and 2005.(2) The net change rate of cultivated land area remained negative, underscoring a significant issue of more land being occupied than compensated. Construction occupation primarily occurred on slopes of 2–6°, most notably in the Yellow River Floodplain Region for Sand Control and Farmland Shelter (Ⅲ-5-3fn). In contrast, compensation of cultivated land mainly resulted from the reclamation of forest and grass land on slopes of 6–15° within the Ⅲ-4-1xt and Ⅲ-4-2t subregions, while the Bohai bay region for ecological conservation (Ⅲ-5-2w) exhibited a higher proportion of other types of reclamation.(3) The factor detector results identified rainfall as the dominant factor, followed by GDP and human activity intensity. The interaction detector revealed predominantly two-factor enhancement effects. The interaction between rainfall ∩ human activity intensity served as the primary interacting pair across the entire province and within the Ⅲ-4-1xt, Ⅲ-4-2t, and Ⅲ-5-2w subregions. In contrast, the interaction between distance to roads ∩ human activity intensity was the dominant combination in the Ⅲ-5-3fn subregion.【Conclusions】This study reveals that the phenomenon of cultivated land climbing slopes, driven by the synergistic effects of meteorological conditions, socioeconomic factors, and human activities, holds reference value for optimizing cultivated conservation, strengthening ecological risk prevention and control, and scientifically advancing land use planning.