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    基于多模型的雅鲁藏布江流域降雨侵蚀力时空特征

    Spatial-temporal characteristics of rainfall erosivity in Yarlung Zangbo River Basin based on multi-model

    • 摘要: 评估不同简易降雨侵蚀力(R)模型在雅鲁藏布江流域应用的差异性,揭示流域降雨侵蚀力的时空变化特征,为区域水土流失防治模型选择提供科学支撑。基于25个国家气象站1980—2020年逐日降雨数据,应用9种典型简易模型(A-I)计算R值。通过有效系数、Mann-Kendall检验、Sen’s slope分析、皮尔逊相关与层次聚类等方法,系统分析了不同模型在干旱、半干旱、半湿润、湿润区气象站的表现.结果表明:1) 各模型计算的多年平均R值差异显著(101 ~ 1677 MJ·mm/(hm²·h·a)),模型B、C、E较模型D、F、G模型结果偏大,且空间差异性大;模型I在计算区域内无异常值,表明其稳定性。2) 各模型计算的R值年际变化方向一致,且均在2005年左右检测到极显著突变点(p< 0.01)。多数站点呈上升趋势,但不同模型估计的趋势幅度差异明显。3) 模型聚类分为3组(组内相似度> 90 %):组1(A, B, C, E, F, G)、组2(D)、组3(H, I)。各组对气候响应的敏感度排序为:组3 > 组1 > 组2,该差异在半干旱和半湿润区尤为显著(p< 0.01)。综上结论:不同模型在估算绝对值、变化幅度及局部趋势上存在显著差异,本研究成果可为可为雅鲁藏布江流域高寒生态脆弱区的降雨侵蚀力模型优选提供科学依据。

       

      Abstract: Background To investigate the differences in the application of different simple rainfall erosivity(R) models in the Yarlung Zangbo River Basin(YZRB), Methods Based on the daily rainfall data of 25 national meteorological stations from 1980 to 2020, nine typical simple models(A-I) were used to calculate the R value. Model differences were quantified by the efficiency coefficient and relative deviation. The Mann–Kendall test and Sen’s slope were applied to detect interannual trends. Pearson correlation and hierarchical clustering (intra-group similarity > 90 %) were employed to classify the models, and their performance was compared across four climatic zones: arid, semi-arid, semi-humid, and humid. Results 1)The multi-year mean R values calculated by different models varied substantially, ranging from 101 to 1,677 MJ·mm/(hm²·h·a). Models B, C, and E produced higher values with greater spatial variability than models D, F, and G, while models I showed no outliers, indicating stability. 2) All models exhibited consistent interannual change directions and detected a highly significant abrupt change (p< 0.01 ) around 2005. Most stations showed upward trends, but the magnitudes varied considerably among models. 3) Cluster analysis grouped the models into three categories: Group 1 (A, B, C, E, F, G), Group 2 (D), and Group 3 (H, I). Sensitivity to climatic variability ranked as Group 3 >Group 1 >Group 2, with significant differences (p< 0.01) in semi-arid and semi-humid zones. Conclusion Simplified R models produced consistent interannual trends and abrupt change points in the YZRB but differed significantly in absolute values, change amplitudes, and local trend intensity. Model clusters based on interannual fluctuation similarity showed distinct climate sensitivity, particularly in semi-arid and semi-humid regions. These findings provide a scientific reference for selecting rainfall erosivity models in cold, high-altitude, and ecologically fragile regions.

       

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