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    1951-2020年降水变化与人类活动对沂河流域年径流量的影响

    Impacts of precipitation changes and human activities on annual runoff in the Yihe River basin from 1951 to 2020

    • 摘要: 探究流域径流演变趋势,并定量评估气候变化与人类活动对年径流量的影响,对于实现流域水资源的高效合理利用、推动流域生态建设以及保障社会经济的可持续发展,具有极为重要的意义。本研究基于1951-2020年沂河流域径流和降水数据,采用Mann-Kendall趋势检验法与时间序列对比法,分析流域年降水量和径流量的变化趋势,利用降水-径流经验统计模型,量化流域降水变化与人类活动对年径流量的影响,揭示沂河流域年径流量的演化机制。研究结果显示,1951-2020年,沂河流域年降水量与年径流量均呈现下降趋势;水利工程建设、水资源开发利用、生态建设、土地利用变化等人类活动导致流域年径流量减少;沂河流域年径流演化可分为基准期(1951-1965年)和措施期(1966-2020年)两个阶段,基准期年径流量变化主要受降水变化的影响,措施期受年降水量和人类活动的共同影响,人类活动影响程度较大。研究结果可为流域生态建设和水资源的有效利用提供参考。

       

      Abstract: The analysis of runoff evolution trends and quantitative assessment of the impacts from both climate change and human activities on annual runoff are critically important for advancing sustainable water management, supporting ecological conservation initiatives, and promoting long-term socioeconomic development within river basins. This study focuses on the Yihe River basin and utilizes long-term observed data of runoff and precipitation covering the period from 1951 to 2020. The primary objectives are to detect and characterize trends in annual precipitation and runoff, to quantify the respective contributions of climatic variation and anthropogenic disturbances to observed changes in runoff, and to elucidate the underlying mechanisms governing runoff evolution in the basin. To achieve these objectives, the Mann-Kendall trend test was employed to statistically identify significant trends in the hydro-meteorological time series. A time-series comparison method, specifically the double mass curve technique, was applied to diagnose periods of consistency and change in the precipitation-runoff relationship. Furthermore, an empirical statistical model linking precipitation to runoff was developed and calibrated for a defined baseline period, during which human influence was considered minimal. This established model was subsequently used to simulate naturalized runoff during a subsequent impacted period, enabling the separation of climatic and anthropogenic effects. The results reveal a statistically significant declining trend in both annual precipitation and annual runoff over the seven-decade study period. A major finding is the identification of a distinct shift in the dominant drivers of runoff change around the mid-1960s. Consequently, the entire study duration was partitioned into two phases for detailed analysis: a baseline period (1951-1965) and an intervention period (1966-2020). During the baseline period, inter-annual variability in runoff was predominantly governed by natural precipitation fluctuations. In contrast, the intervention period was characterized by a substantial anthropogenic imprint on the hydrological regime. Intensive human activities-including but not limited to the construction and operation of water conservancy projects, large-scale abstraction for water supply, implementation of various ecological restoration projects, and significant transformations in land use and land cover-were identified as the principal factors responsible for the notable reduction in annual runoff. Quantitative attribution analysis based on the empirical model indicates that the magnitude of runoff reduction attributable to human activities significantly exceeds that caused by precipitation change alone during the intervention period.nIn conclusion, this research underscores the increasing dominance of human activities in reshaping the hydrological cycle of the Yihe River basin, overshadowing the role of natural climatic variability in recent decades. The quantitative findings offer valuable insights and a robust scientific foundation for informing future policy-making, guiding ecological protection strategies, and optimizing water resources allocation and management practices in the basin and other similar regions facing comparable challenges.

       

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