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    青藏高原大通河流域水沙演变特征及其归因分析

    Variations in Runoff and Sediment Load and Their Attributions in the Datong River Basin on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

    • 摘要: 以大通河流域为研究对象,综合运用有序聚类检验、Pettitt检验、小波分析、变异诊断等多种统计方法,系统研究了流域水沙的空间分布、年际变化、年内分配、周期和突变特征,并基于双累积曲线法定量评估了气候变化和人类活动对水沙变化的影响。结果表明:(1)大通河流域气候暖湿化明显,上游水沙呈微弱增加趋势,大型水库蓄水后输沙量呈断崖式下降,下游径流和输沙下降趋势明显,变化幅度分别为-0.68×108 m3/10a和-53.1×104 t/10a。不同季节来看,夏季径流减小,冬季和枯季径流量显著增加,夏季输沙量在下游下降趋势明显。(2)水沙空间分布存在明显异源性,年内分配不均,且输沙较径流更为集中。水沙突变并不同步,下游径流突变发生时间早于上游。(3)水沙演变存在多时间尺度特征,年径流在43a、输沙量在39a左右尺度上周期震荡较为明显,且径流的周期特征强于输沙。(4)气候变化是流域径流增加的主导因素,以跨流域调水、水库建设为主的人类活动是引起沙量减少的驱动因素。

       

      Abstract: This study focuses on the Datong River basin and employs statistical methods such as ordered clustering analysis, Pettitt test, wavelet analysis, and variation diagnosis to analyze the spatial distribution, interannual variations, intra-annual distribution, periodicity, and abrupt changes in water and sediment characteristics. Based on double cumulative curves, the quantitative assessment of the impact of climate factors and human activities on water and sediment changes is conducted. The results indicate:(1)The Datong River basin exhibits a noticeable trend towards warmer and wetter climate conditions. Upstream, there is a slight increase in sediment transport, but after the construction of large reservoirs, sediment transport sharply decreases. Downstream, there is a clear decreasing trend in water and sediment, with inclination rates of -0.68×108 m3/10a and -53.1×104 t/10a, respectively. Seasonally, summer runoff decreases, while winter and dry season runoff significantly increase, leading to a notable reduction in downstream summer sediment transport.(2)There are significant differences in water and sediment distribution across the region, and intra-annual distribution of sediment is uneven, with sediment transport being concentrated during certain periods. The abrupt changes in water and sediment do not occur synchronously, with downstream changes occurring earlier than upstream changes.(3)Water and sediment evolution exhibits characteristics at multiple time scales. Annual runoff shows significant periodic oscillations around a scale of 43 years,while sediment transport exhibits periodicity at around 39 years. The periodic features are more pronounced in runoff compared to sediment transport.(4)Climate change is identified as the primary driver for increased runoff in the basin, while human activities, mainly cross-basin water diversion and reservoir construction, are the driving factors for the reduction in water and sediment transport.

       

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