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    基于SWAT的沅江流域径流对土地利用变化的响应

    Assessing the hydrological response to land use changes using the SWAT model in the Yuanjiang River Basin

    • 摘要: 为定量分析沅江流域土地利用变化对径流的影响,探讨土地利用动态变化下水文响应单元的演变规律及其对地表径流产生的水文响应特征。基于2003—2022年的实测径流、气象和土地利用数据,构建了五期SWAT分布式水文模型进行模拟分析。结果表明:SWAT模型在沅江流域具有很好的适用性;在过去20年中,流域土地利用结构发生显著变化,主要表现为耕地与林地相互转化、建设用地持续扩张,同时水体、草地与未利用地面积波动较大;相应地,水文响应单元(HRU)总数呈增加趋势,反映出土地细碎化程度加剧,尤其是城镇化推动了城镇HRU的增长,成为主要驱动因素;沅江流域地草地减少、建设用地增加均会推动径流增长,而林地恢复减缓增流趋势,这一发现清晰地印证了人类活动干扰与生态修复措施对流域水循环的复合影响,为理解人地关系作用下的水文响应规律提供了科学依据

       

      Abstract: BackgroundTo quantitatively analyze the impact of land use change on runoff in the Yuanjiang River Basin, this study aims to examine the evolution of hydrological response units (HRUs) under dynamic land use conditions. It further investigates how these changes influence the hydrological response characteristics of surface runoff.MethodsUsing observed runoff, meteorological, and land use data from 2003 to 2022, this study constructed five phases of the SWAT distributed hydrological model to conduct simulation analyses.Results1)The SWAT model demonstrates strong applicability in the Yuanjiang River Basin. 2)Over the past two decades, the basin’s land use structure has undergone significant changes, primarily characterized by the mutual conversion between cropland and forest land, the continuous expansion of built-up areas, and notable fluctuations in the areas of water bodies, grasslands, and unused land. 3)Correspondingly, the total number of hydrological response units (HRUs) has increased, indicating a growing degree of land fragmentation. Urbanization has been identified as the main driving factor behind the rise in urban HRUs. 4)In addition, the reduction of grassland and the expansion of construction land have both contributed to an increase in surface runoff, while the restoration of forest land has played a mitigating role in this trend.ConclusionThis finding confirms the combined influence of human activities and ecological restoration measures on the watershed’s hydrological cycle. It provides a scientific basis for understanding the hydrological response mechanisms under the interaction between humans and the natural environment.

       

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