Abstract: Objective Jixian County, located in the middle reaches of the Yellow River in Shanxi Province, has a relatively fragile ecological environment. Assessing future land use and soil erosion dynamics in this area is critical for guiding subsequent land use planning and ensuring the sustainable management of local soil and water resources. Methods This study integrated the PLUS model and the Chinese Soil Loss Equation (CSLE) with CMIP6 climate data. Based on multiple datasets (including land use, meteorological, remote sensing, and economic data), we predicted county-level soil erosion in Jixian County for 2030 under various land use scenarios and analyzed its driving factors using a geographic detector. Results 1) From 2010 to 2020, the land use changes in Jixian County were mainly characterized by an increase in the area of woodland, grassland, and construction land, alongside a decrease in cultivated land. The land use transformation primarily involved bidirectional conversion between grassland and cultivated land. 2) Soil erosion conditions in Jixian County improved markedly from 2010 to 2020, with the county's average soil erosion modulus decreasing from 1127.75 t/(km²·a) to 888.82 t/(km²·a). 3) Geographic detectors indicate that slope is the primary natural driver influencing the spatial distribution of soil erosion within the county, while distance from the road is the principal social driver. The interaction between these factors enhances the explanatory power for spatial differentiation of soil erosion. 4) By 2030, Jixian County's land use patterns are projected to differ markedly across development scenarios. A comparative analysis of soil erosion conditions under these scenarios shows that the ecological conservation scenario results in the lowest soil erosion intensity. Conclusions The study indicates that adopting an ecologically oriented development model to optimize land use patterns and scientifically coordinating urban construction with ecological protection is key to achieving sustainable development at the county level. Future management should focus on regulating the dynamic balance among construction land, farmland, forest and grassland in the central county area, increasing forest and grass coverage, and strengthening both vegetation restoration on steep slopes and soil erosion control on farmland.