Abstract: Objective The Jinxi Loess Hilly Region is located in the ecologically fragile zone of the Yellow River Basin. Investigating the evolution patterns of its land use is critical for coordinating regional ecological protection and high-quality development. Methods By comprehensively applying the transfer matrix, dynamic degree analysis, and the PLUS model, this study analyzed the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of land use from 2000 to 2020, quantified the contributions of natural and human driving factors, and simulated the land use pattern in 2030 under four scenarios. Results 1) Land use in the study area is dominated by cultivated land, grassland, and forest land, exhibiting an overall trend of "decrease in cultivated land, increase in grassland, and expansion of construction land along river valleys." Over the 20-year period, the dynamic degree of construction land was the highest (5.72%), while the comprehensive land use dynamic degree gradually decreased to 0.99%. 2) Elevation serves as a fundamental constraining factor, yet the role of socio-economic factors is equally significant: cultivated land expansion is influenced by transportation accessibility, whereas construction land expansion is dominated by socio-economic locational factors such as distance to government seats and roads. 3) Multi-scenario simulations reveal trade-offs among different policy objectives: the cultivated land protection scenario shows the highest proportion of cultivated land (24.71%), the urban development scenario shows the highest proportion of construction land (2.55%), and the ecological protection scenario shows the highest proportion of forest and grassland (76.30%). Conclusions The PLUS model demonstrates good applicability. The simulation results present the trade-offs among the objectives of "food security, urban development, and ecological protection," providing a scientific basis for soil erosion control and land spatial optimization in the region.