Abstract: Background Ecosystem resilience reflects the capacity of an ecosystem to resist, adapt to, and recover from disturbances, and is a key indicator for assessing ecosystem stability. Analyzing changes in ecosystem resilience can effectively reflect the benefits and potential risks of forestry ecological projects, which is of great significance for the continuous improvement of the quality of ecological governance. Methods Taking Ji county on the Loess Plateau as a case study, this study analyzed the spatiotemporal changes in ecosystem resilience from 2000 to 2023 based on the framework of “resistance-adaptability-recovery”. Furthermore, by integrating the System Dynamics model and the intPLUS model, this study projected the status of ecosystem resilience in 2035 under different development scenarios (current trend continuation, green transition, and high-carbon economy). Results 1) With the continuous implementation of forestry ecological projects, ecosystem resistance increased markedly, while adaptability and recovery capacity showed slight improvements, and overall ecosystem resilience was progressively enhanced. 2) Areas of high ecosystem resilience were concentrated in forest land, while low-value areas were distributed in arable land and construction land, exhibiting a significant cold and hot spot clustering pattern in space, which provided spatial guidance for differentiated management strategies. 3) Under the current trend continuation scenario, ecosystem resilience improved moderately; under the green transition scenario, it improved markedly; whereas under the high-carbon economy scenario, a trend of degradation emerged within the ecosystem resilience grade structure. Conclusions Forestry ecological projects have effectively enhanced ecosystem resilience, yet it remains necessary to formulate targeted, dynamic, and collaborative strategies for its further improvement. The study findings can provide a case study and reference for the Loess Plateau and other similar regions.