Abstract: Objective Minqing county, a typical mountainous county in the hilly region of Southeast China, faces significant challenges of cultivated land abandonment that threaten regional food security and sustainable land use. This study systematically analyzes the driving mechanisms of farmland abandonment to support targeted prevention strategies. Methods Based on land-use remote sensing data from 2000 to 2025, this research integrates the Google Earth Engine (GEE) platform, ArcGIS, and the Patch generating Land Use Simulation (PLUS) model to identify driving factors and delineate high risk abandonment zones. Results 1) The temporal evolution of abandoned cultivated land can be divided into four stages: the area of abandoned land decreased sharply from 2002 to 2008 with scattered abandoned patches distributed across the whole county; the abandoned land area fluctuated periodically during 2009–2018, and the gravity of abandoned land shrank to central river valleys after 2010, mainly concentrated in Baizhang town, Yunlong township, Baizhong town and Bandong town; the scale of abandoned land fluctuated at a low level from 2019 to 2023, with a stable agglomeration core of abandoned land formed in central areas, and only sporadic newly abandoned plots emerged in marginal townships; a periodic rebound of abandoned land area occurred in 2024. 2) Collinearity diagnostics indicate no multicollinearity among factors (VIF: 1.18–2.03, R²=0.46). The contribution ranking of driving factors is: slope gradient (0.16) ＞ DEM (0.15) ＞ distance to secondary roads (0.13) ＞ distance to trunk roads (0.12) ＞ population (0.11). 3) Based on the top five contributing factors, the Abandonment Susceptibility Index (ASI) was constructed based on the top five contributing factors, identifying high-susceptibility areas predominantly distributed in peripheral townships such as Chiyuan town, Shanglian township, and Shenghuang township. Conclusions Cultivated land abandonment in Minqing county is primarily driven by the combined effects of natural topography, transportation accessibility, and population dynamics, with GDP and precipitation playing secondary roles. Current blanket land use control policies are insufficient to resolve persistent marginal farmland abandonment; therefore, differentiated zoning strategies are required to effectively curb abandonment. This study achieves long term precise monitoring at the county scale, reveals the interactive mechanisms between natural and socio economic factors, and provides both a technical framework and targeted governance strategies for cultivated land protection in mountainous regions