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    基于降尺度降水的青藏高原降雨侵蚀力时空分异特征

    Spatiotemporal patterns and differences in rainfall erosivity over the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau based on downscaled precipitation

    • 摘要: 【目的】高精度降水数据是复杂地形区降雨侵蚀力精细估算的重要基础。受青藏高原气象站点稀疏及卫星降水产品分辨率偏粗的限制,降雨侵蚀力刻画仍存在不足,有必要构建高分辨率降水数据以提升区域降雨侵蚀力估算精度。【方法】以GPM IMERG 2018–2020月降水产品为基础,耦合多源环境变量,采用随机森林(RF)模型实现1 km空间降尺度,并据此计算月尺度降雨侵蚀力因子R,分析其时空分布特征及不同数据驱动差异。【结果】1)RF降尺度模型能够较好重建青藏高原月降水空间分布,独立测试集决定系数R²为0.73~0.82,每月均方根误差为25.8~35.3mm,平均绝对误差每月为11.9~15.8mm,效率系数为0.78~0.85。2)2018—2020年青藏高原R因子在空间上呈东南向西北递减格局,高值区主要分布于高原南缘、东南缘及东部局部区域,中西部和西北部为低值背景;时间上表现为“夏高冬低”,年际格局基本稳定但夏季高值区范围与强度存在差异。3)与原始GPM IMERG数据相比,降尺度结果在年内变化趋势上总体一致,但在峰值强度、过渡月份及局地空间细节上存在差异,其中7月整体偏低,4—5月和9月相对偏高,同时空间结构与梯度表达更为细致。【结论】降尺度月降水数据能够有效提升复杂地形区降雨侵蚀力空间刻画能力,改善局地结构表达,为青藏高原降雨侵蚀力估算以及后续的水土保持研究提供数据支撑。

       

      Abstract: Objective High—resolution precipitation data are a fundamental basis for the fine—scale estimation of rainfall erosivity in complex terrain regions. Owing to the sparse distribution of meteorological stations over the Tibetan Plateau and the coarse spatial resolution of satellite—based precipitation products, the characterization of rainfall erosivity remains insufficient. Therefore, it is necessary to develop high—resolution precipitation data to improve the accuracy of regional rainfall erosivity estimation. Methods Based on the GPM IMERG monthly precipitation product for 2018–2020, multi—source environmental variables were incorporated, and a random forest model was employed to achieve 1 km spatial downscaling. Subsequently, the monthly rainfall erosivity factor (R) was calculated, and its spatiotemporal distribution characteristics as well as differences under different precipitation—driven datasets were analyzed. Results 1) The RF downscaling model effectively reconstructed the spatial distribution of monthly precipitation over the Tibetan Plateau. For the independent test set, the coefficient of determination (R²) ranged from 0.73 to 0.82, the root mean square error ranged from 25.8 to 35.3 mm in each month, the mean absolute error (MAE) ranged from 11.9 to 15.8 mm in each month , and the Kling-Gupta Efficiency (KGE) ranged from 0.78 to 0.85. 2) From 2018 to 2020, the R factor over the Tibetan Plateau exhibited a spatial pattern of decreasing values from the southeast to the northwest. High-value areas were mainly distributed along the southern margin, southeastern margin, and local eastern regions of the plateau, whereas the central—western and northwestern regions were characterized by low values. Temporally, the R factor showed a pattern of high values in summer and low values in winter. The interannual spatial pattern was generally stable, although the extent and intensity of summer high-value areas varied among years. 3) Compared with the original GPM IMERG data, the downscaled results showed generally consistent intra—annual variation trends, but differences were observed in peak intensity, transitional months, and local spatial details. Specifically, the downscaled R factor was generally lower in July and relatively higher in April–May and September, while its spatial structure and gradient expression were more detailed. ConclusionsThe downscaled monthly precipitation data can effectively improve the spatial representation of rainfall erosivity in complex terrain regions and enhance the depiction of local-scale heterogeneity. These results provide reliable data support for the fine—scale estimation of rainfall erosivity over the Tibetan Plateau and for subsequent research in soil and water conservation.

       

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