Abstract:
Objective Different classification schemes in current spatial hazard assessments of debris flows lead to notable spatial distribution differences in zoning results, consequently affecting the effective allocation of disaster prevention resources. Therefore, a reasonable hazard classification scheme for debris flows is essential for regional disaster prevention and mitigation planning. Methods This study takes the eastern foothills of Helan Mountain as the study area and selects eight evaluation factors: slope, topographic wetness index, surface cutting depth, earthquake kernel density, geological time, monthly average precipitation from April to October, distance to river, and fractional vegetation cover. Based on the certainty factor model (CF) and the logistic regression model (LR), a coupled CF-LR model was constructed to assess debris flow hazard in the study area. By evaluating model accuracy and the rationality of the assessment results, the optimal classification scheme for debris flow hazard zonation applicable to this region was determined. Results 1) The area (AUC) under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) of the CF-LR model is 0.860, indicating high accuracy. 2) Compared with the four-level and five-level classification schemes, the three-level classification scheme is more rational and reliable in the eastern foothills of Helan Mountain. 3) Although the high-hazard zone for debris flow disasters in the eastern foothills of Helan Mountain under the three-level classification scheme accounts for only about one-third (34.32%) of the study area, it contains 78.10% of the historical debris flow sites, with a disaster site density 12.6 times that of the low-hazard zone. Conclusions The selected three-level classification scheme in this study can delineate the core cluster area of debris-flow hazards in the eastern foothills of Helan Mountain and offer a scientific design basis for geological hazard prevention and reduction planning in northern Ningxia.