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    基于CF-LR模型的泥石流空间危险性评价对比——以贺兰山东麓为例

    Comparison of spatial hazard assessment of debris flow based on CF-LR model: A case study of the Eastern Foothills of Helan Mountain

    • 摘要: 【目的】当前泥石流空间危险性评估中不同分级方案导致区划结果空间分布差异显著,进而影响了防灾资源的有效配置,由此合理的泥石流危险性区划方案对区域防灾减灾规划至关重要。【方法】以贺兰山东麓为研究区,选取坡度、地形湿度指数、切割深度、地震核密度、地层年代、4—10月月均降水量、距水系距离、植被覆盖度等8个评价因子。基于确定性系数模型(certainty factor model,CF)与逻辑回归模型(logistic regression model,LR),构建耦合模型CF-LR,开展研究区泥石流空间危险性评估。并通过检验模型的精度及评价结果的合理性,确定适用于该区域泥石流危险性区划的最优分级方案。【结果】1)CF-LR模型ROC曲线(receiver operating characteristic curve,ROC)下的面积(area under curve,AUC)为0.860,具有较高的精度;2)相较于四级和五级分区方案,三级分区方案在贺兰山东麓地区展现出更高的合理性与可靠性;3)三级分区方案下的贺兰山东麓泥石流灾害高危险区仅占研究区约1/3的面积(34.32%),却承载78.10%的历史灾害点,灾害点密度是低危险区的12.6倍。【结论】本研究优选的三级分区方案可用于识别贺兰山东麓泥石流灾害危险核心聚集区,并为宁夏北部地区地质灾害防灾减灾规划提供科学的设计依据。

       

      Abstract: Objective Different classification schemes in current spatial hazard assessments of debris flows lead to notable spatial distribution differences in zoning results, consequently affecting the effective allocation of disaster prevention resources. Therefore, a reasonable hazard classification scheme for debris flows is essential for regional disaster prevention and mitigation planning. Methods This study takes the eastern foothills of Helan Mountain as the study area and selects eight evaluation factors: slope, topographic wetness index, surface cutting depth, earthquake kernel density, geological time, monthly average precipitation from April to October, distance to river, and fractional vegetation cover. Based on the certainty factor model (CF) and the logistic regression model (LR), a coupled CF-LR model was constructed to assess debris flow hazard in the study area. By evaluating model accuracy and the rationality of the assessment results, the optimal classification scheme for debris flow hazard zonation applicable to this region was determined. Results 1) The area (AUC) under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) of the CF-LR model is 0.860, indicating high accuracy. 2) Compared with the four-level and five-level classification schemes, the three-level classification scheme is more rational and reliable in the eastern foothills of Helan Mountain. 3) Although the high-hazard zone for debris flow disasters in the eastern foothills of Helan Mountain under the three-level classification scheme accounts for only about one-third (34.32%) of the study area, it contains 78.10% of the historical debris flow sites, with a disaster site density 12.6 times that of the low-hazard zone. Conclusions The selected three-level classification scheme in this study can delineate the core cluster area of debris-flow hazards in the eastern foothills of Helan Mountain and offer a scientific design basis for geological hazard prevention and reduction planning in northern Ningxia.

       

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