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    2000-2020年三生空间生态风险耦合协调及驱动机制

    Spatiotemporal land-use change and carbon storage response in ZheJiang Province

    • 摘要: 摘 要:探讨“三生空间”景观生态风险与耦合协调性的时空演变特征及其驱动机制,对浙江省国土空间优化与生态安全格局构建具有重要意义。以浙江省为研究区,基于2000—2020年土地遥感监测数据,综合运用景观生态风险指数、耦合协调度模型和空间自相关分析方法,系统解析生产、生活、生态空间的时空分异规律及其生态风险特征;采用 XGBoost-SHAP 可解释性机器学习方法,量化各因子的非线性驱动与交互效应。结果表明:(1)2000—2020 年,浙江省生产空间缩减7.29%,生活空间大幅扩张103.41%,生态空间小幅增加0.71%,城镇生活空间对农业生产空间的挤压特征显著。(2)全省呈现“北高南低、平原高山区低”的空间分异格局,形成“平原高风险高协调、山区低风险低协调”的特征。(3)耦合协调度存在显著空间正相关性,H-H集聚区稳定分布于浙北平原,L-L集聚区集中于浙西南山区。(4)高程(21.5%)和 NDVI(10.2%)是核心驱动因子,高程与人口、GDP 的交互效应显著,阈值点集中在海拔200米以下。未来应基于高程阈值实施差异化调控:平原地区重点推进存量优化与生态修复,山区重点加强生态保护与生态产品价值实现,促进全省三生空间协同发展。

       

      Abstract: Abstract: Background To analyze the spatiotemporal evolution and driving mechanisms of landscape ecological risk and coupling coordination in production-living-ecological spaces in Zhejiang Province.Method Based on 2000–2020 land-use remote sensing data, landscape ecological risk indices, coupling coordination models, and spatial autocorrelation were used to examine spatiotemporal patterns. XGBoost-SHAP quantified nonlinear and interaction effects of driving factors.Results (1) From 2000 to 2020, production space decreased by 7.29%, living space expanded by 103.41%, and ecological space increased by 0.71%, with urban living space encroaching on agriculture. (2) Spatial patterns showed“high in the north, low in the south; high in plains, low in mountains,”forming“high-risk high-coordination in plains, low-risk low-coordination in mountains.”(3) Coupling coordination exhibited strong positive spatial autocorrelation: H-H clusters in northern plains, L-L clusters in southwestern mountains.(4) Elevation (21.5%) and NDVI (10.2%) were key drivers, with significant interaction effects below 200 m.Conclusion Elevation-based differentiated management is recommended: optimize land use and restore ecosystems in plains, strengthen protection and realize ecological value in mountains, promoting coordinated development across the province.

       

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