1960—2011 年福建省不同等级降水时空变化特征
Temporal-spatial characteristics of different rainfall levels in Fujian Province from 1960 to 2011
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摘要: 基于1960—2011年福建省17 个气象站点逐日降水资料,运用线性趋势、Mann-Kendall 非参数检验和R/S方法分析福建省不同等级降水量和降水时间的时空变化特征。结果表明:1960—2011年期间福建省年均降水量增加,年均降水时间明显减少;各季节小雨、中雨降水量和降水时间呈现减少趋势,大雨、暴雨降水量和降水时间有增加趋势;各季节不同等级降水的降水量和降水时间的空间分布差异较大,中部屏南—九仙山一线为小雨降水量和降水时间的高值区,东南沿海为暴雨的高值区。春夏冬3季的大雨、暴雨降水量和降水时间将持续增加, 极端降水基于1960—2011年福建省17个气象站点逐日降水资料,运用线性趋势、Mann-Kendall 非参数检验和R/S方法分析福建省不同等级降水量和降水时间的时空变化特征。结果表明:1960—2011年期间福建省年均降水量增加,年均降水时间明显减少;各季节小雨、中雨降水量和降水时间呈现减少趋势,大雨、暴雨降水量和降水时间有增加趋势;各季节不同等级降水的降水量和降水时间的空间分布差异较大,中部屏南—九仙山一线为小雨降水量和降水时间的高值区,东南沿海为暴雨的高值区。春夏冬3季的大雨、暴雨降水量和降水时间将持续增加,极端降水概率增大,小雨和中雨的降水量和降水时间将持续减少,发生阶段性干旱的可能性增大。Abstract: Rainfall is not only one of the most important drivers for soil erosion, but also the key factor for geological disasters such as landslide and mudslide. Furthermore, not only high intensity rainfall in short duration may lead to soil erosion, but also low intensity rainfall in long duration would increase the risk for geological disasters. Therefore, it is important to assess the features of rainfall amount and rainfall days for regional environment security. In this study, the temporal and spatial characteristics of rainfall amounts and rainfall days with different rainfall levels were analyzed by using linear trend method, Mann-Kendall test and R/ S method. This analysis was based on daily rainfall data collected from 17 meteorological stations in Fujian from 1960 to 2011. Mann-Kendall test is a non-parametric statistical method which has been widely used in the past. We used this method to analyze and test the trend of rainfall from 1960 to 2011. R/ S method was used to determine the trend of rainfall in the future. The Hurst values derived from R/ S method will specifically indicate the future trends for different rainfall levels. The results showed that the annual rainfall amounts increased while the rainfall days decreased significantly in the time series of 1960—2011. Both of them decreased spatially from northwestern to southeastern Fujian. The rainfall amounts and rainfall days of light rain and moderate rain for all seasons (spring, summer, autumn and winter) were decreased, while the rainfall amounts and rainfall days for heavy rain and rainstorm were increased for all seasons. The spatial variations of different rainfall levels for different seasons were significant. The central Fujian (Pingnan-Jiuxianshan) had the largest average annual rainfall amount for light rain. The southeast coastal area was always the high value region for heavy rain. The central Fujian had less rainstorms in winter than that in the northern and southern Fujian. The Hurst values showed that the rainfall amounts and rainfall days of heavy rain and rainstorm in spring, summer and winter would keep increasing in the future, but the rainfall amounts and rainfall days of light rain and moderate rain showed the reverse trend. It indicated that the enhanced frequency of extreme rainfall and periodic drought. Although the rainfall amounts and rainfall days showed significant fluctuation in time series and large difference at spatial level, the rainfall intensity would increase in the long term trend.