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    锡林郭勒盟潜在蒸散量和干燥指数的变化特征

    Variation characteristics of potential evapotranspiration and drying index in Xilingol League

    • 摘要: 研究锡林郭勒盟潜在蒸散量(PET)和干燥指数(IA)的时空分布特征,了解该地区的干旱状况,对进一步研究该地区植被状况、环境变化和农业水资源管理具有重要意义。利用研究区及周边共11个气象站点1957-2016年的气象资料,根据彭曼蒙特斯模型(P-M模型)和干燥指数(IA)计算公式,得到潜在蒸散量(PET)和IA值,采用3种突变检测方法、径向基函数插值法和偏相关分析,探讨了PETIA的时空变化特征及其影响因素。研究结果表明:研究区1957-2016年多年平均PET为875.82 mm,多年平均IA为0.615 6,均呈增加趋势;PET年内分布主要集中在夏季,占比达46.28%,冬季最小,占比仅有4.15%,IA春季最大,最为干旱,夏季最小,相对湿润;PETIA均呈自东北向西南增加的趋势;PET在1984和1998年发生突变,IA在1998和2001年发生突变;PETIA对风速敏感程度最强。1957-2016年研究区干旱化程度呈增加趋势,多年统计表明春季最旱,空间分布上由东北至西南干旱化程度增加。

       

      Abstract:
      Background To study the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of potential evapotranspiration (PET) and drying index (IA) in Xilingol League and to understand the drought situation in this area are of great significance for further study of vegetation status, environmental change and agricultural water resources management in this area.
      Methods Based on the meteorological data of 11 weather stations in and around the study area from 1957 to 2016, the PET and IA values were obtained using Penman-Montes model (P-M model) and IA formulas. Three mutation detection methods, radial basis function interpolation method and partial correlation analysis were used to explore the temporal and spatial characteristics of PET and IA and their influencing factors.
      Results From 1957 to 2016, the average PET was 875.82 mm and IA was 0.615 6, which showed an increasing trend; the distribution of P ET was mainly concentrated in summer, accounting for 46.28%, the smallest in winter, accounting for only 4.15%, the largest in spring, the driest in summer, the smallest in relative humidity. Both PET and IA showed an increasing trend from northeast to southwest; the mutation of PET occurred in 1984 and 1998, IA abrupt change occurred in 1998 and 2001; PET and IA were the most sensitive to wind speed.
      Conclusions The degree of drought in the study area increased from 1957 to 2016. Statistics for many years showed that the drought was the most severe in spring, and the degree of drought in spatial distribution increased from northeast to southwest.

       

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