高级检索

    北京密云水库集水区降水及干旱时空分布特征

    Spatio-temporal characteristics of precipitation and drought in catchment of Miyun Reservoir, Beijing

    • 摘要: 作为北京唯一的地表饮用水源地,密云水库对北京城市可持续发展十分重要。采用PERSIANN-CDR月降水数据序列及4种尺度(月、季节、1/2年、1年)的标准化降水指数(SPI),对该区域1983—2017年间的降水及气象干旱的时空分布规律进行系统的分析,并采用关联M-K检验方法对月尺度的降水和4个尺度上的SPI值进行时间序列变化的显著性检验(0.05水平上)。结果表明:研究期内密云水库流域集水区的年降水量总体上围绕着多年平均降水量479.37 mm上下波动,统计学上没有显著的变化趋势,但在21世纪初的10年内表现为连续偏低的趋势;月降水的多年均值在空间上的分布呈现从东北部向西南部降低的趋势,但时间序列上的变化趋势统计学上并不显著。不同尺度上的SPI均显示长时间持续干旱主要发生在本世纪初的10年内,这与降水的变化趋势基本一致。这一时段恰恰是该区域生态建设项目开始大规模实施的主要年份,因此干旱对区域内重大生态工程实施效果及生态服务的影响,特别是对该时段内密云水库水量及水质的影响应该成为今后研究的重点。

       

      Abstract:
      Background As sole surface edible water source area, Miyun Reservoir plays an critical role in urban sustainable development of Beijing. The previous studies, however, limited by sparse distribution and data missing of ground hydrometorological observation stations, could not delineate the hydrometeorological characterisitics systematically and totally in the catchment of Miyun Reservior, accurate and confident data for ecohydrological models parameterization at watershed scale are not available as well. It is neccessary to study long-term trend of related hydrometeorological parameters.
      Methods Using PERSIANN-CDR (Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information Using Artificial Neural Networks-Climate Data Record) precipitation dataset and derivative standardized precipitation index (SPI) at 1-, 3-, 6- and 12-month scales, we analyzed spatio-temporal pattern of precipitation and drought in 1983-2017 and further tested their significance (at 0.05 level) based on time series datasets with contextual Mann-Kendall (M-K) method.
      Results 1) We divided annual precipitation into three stages as year 1983-1998, year 1999-2009 and year 2010-2017, among which annual precipitation had greater fluctuation around multi-year mean during year 1983-1998, annual precipitation was lower than multi-year mean during year 1999-2009, and annual precipitation had smaller fluctuation around multi-year mean during year 2010-2017, annual precipitation fluctuated around the multi-year mean precipitation (479.37 mm) with insignificant trend statistically, even if a continuous decreasing existed in the first 10 years of this century. 2) Monthly precipitation occurred mainly from July to September with maximum in July, spatially, greater precipitation occurred in northern and northeastern parts, while small precipitation occurred in southwestern part. M-K test result shows that monthly precipitation increased with insignificant trend statistically in the whole catchment. Grid-based SPI values at 4 scales (1-, 3-, 6- and 12-months) showed that drought events happened occasionally, but intensity was light or medium, no extreme event could be found. In the meantime, three continuous drought events happened during study period coincided well with precipitation change trend. 4)M-K test results for SPI at 4 scales show that SPI1, SPI 3 and SPI6 increased and SPI12 decreased with insignificant trends statistically, in other word, drought was characterized by increasing from monthly scale to seasonal scale, then decreasing slightly at half-yearly scale and finally reducing drastically in yearly scale.
      Conclusions Totally, annual and monthly precipitation amounts in this catchment fluctuate at spatial scale, no significant change trend in temporal scale can be found. However, a lasting and decadal drought defined by SPI could be detected in start of 21st century which would inevitably affect negatively on key ecological program such as Beijing-Tianjin Sand Source Control Program implemented in this period. In conclusion, this study does reflect the long-term precipitation and drought trend and provide more scientific data on revegetation management and water source area protection in Miyun Reservoir catchment, which can be used to paramerize the ecohydrylogical models at watershed scale. In addition, the effects of drought on ecological project and its ecosystem services especially water quality and quantity should be focused in future research.

       

    /

    返回文章
    返回