Quantitative Analysis of Land Use Changes on Soil Erosion and Mult-scenario Simulation Based on GIS and RUSLE in Xinshui River Basin

Objective It is of great significance to carry out soil erosion characteristics and multi-scenario land use simulation in the basin for developing sustainable management strategies. Methods This study quantitatively analyzes the temporal and spatial characteristics of soil erosion in Xinshui River Basin from 1995 to 2020, at the same time, the PLUS model was taken to simulate the 2023 land use type in different scenarios. Results (1) The area of forestland showed a increasing trend from 1995 to 2020, increased from 8.85×10⁴ hm² to 1.16×10⁵ hm². The farmland and the grassland decreased. The area of farmland and grassland were 9.48×10⁴ hm² and 2.16×10⁵ hm² in 2020, which were 3.22% and 11.43% lower than those in 1995. The area of building land has gradually increased, from 773.23 hm² in 1995 to 2.99×10³ hm² in 2018. (2) The soil erosion modulus in Xinshui River Basin fluctuated from 76.37 t/(hm²·a) to 64.24 t/(hm²·a) in 2015, and then increased to 97.31 t/(hm²·a) in 2020. The area of slight erosion land increased from 2.41×10⁵ hm² in 1995 to 2.58×10⁵ hm² in 2020. (3) In different simulation scenarios, the forest land building area in Xinshui River Basin showed an decreasing trend, and in the ecological protection scenario, the number of building land increased the least. During the 25 years in Xinshui River Basin, the coverage of forest and grass improved continuously, and the intensity of soil erosion decreased. Conclusion The results of this study provided a basis for the ecological protection and comprehensive management of Xinshui River Basin.