Ecological risk analysis and evaluation of water resources system:A case study of Xiangride oasis

Ecological risk analysis and its evaluation of water resources is a key problem of sustainable utilization of water resources, while that in oasis region of endorheic drainage is a hotspot. Taking water resources systems of Xiangride oasis in Qinghai as a research object, two models are established which reveal risk evaluation resulted from runoff amount uncertainty of water resources. The uncertainty of water resources and its influence on principal industries in oasis region are quantitatively analyzed. The results indicate that risk index because of runoff amount uncertainty of water resources is 0.362, that of protection forest net integrality is 0.289, and that of agricultural structure affected by water resources and protection forest synthetically is 0.294, whole ecological risk of water resources system is 0.2925.